Vegas’s Westgate Superbook has just released its over/under win totals for the 2017 season, which is right around the corner. Plenty of the odds seem dead on, but here are the 10 you should put your money on if you feel inclined to do so.
Baltimore Orioles (79.5) – Over
The Orioles were a playoff team last season and despite losing catcher Matt Wieters, could be a playoff team once again.
Baltimore boasts a powerful lineup with sluggers like Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo and potential MVP candidate Manny Machado. The starting rotation is once again a weak spot, but a dominant bullpen helps quell the pain.
At the very least, the Orioles should certainly finish at or above the .500 mark, which is all they need to do in order for you to win an over bet.
Detroit Tigers (83.5) – Over
The Tigers won 86 games last year and made next to no changes to this year’s roster. Although they didn’t improve on paper, they should have full seasons out of J.D. Martinez and Nick Castellanos, who both missed significant time on the disabled list last year, as well as improvements from pitchers Daniel Norris and Jordan Zimmermann.
A playoff berth may be tough to come by, but 84 wins should be expected out of this talented squad.
Los Angeles Dodgers (94.5) – Under
The Dodgers are still a World Series contender this season, but expecting them to win 95 games could be a little far-fetched.
Yes, having Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill for a full season helps, but the rest of the rotation’s depth is questionable.
Most importantly, Los Angeles will have more competition in the National League West this year. The Giants, as always, will contend, but Colorado and Arizona look like they could surprise some people and sneak into the race.
Expect at 90-93 win season, but not 95.
Miami Marlins (76.5) – Over
The Jose Fernandez tragedy is something the Marlins will have weighing heavily on their shoulders all year. But sometimes in the wake of tragedy in the city or even the organization itself, sports teams put on their best shows (see 2013 Boston Red Sox, 1998 Detroit Red Wings, Brett Favre’s performance after his father’s death, etc.)
But that’s not the only reason to expect the Marlins could hit the .500 mark this year.
Justin Bour, Dee Gordon and Giancarlo Stanton – one big third of Miami’s lineup – missed a combined 198 games last season.
The Marlin offense will be better, and even without Fernandez, the pitching rotation is pretty deep.
Milwaukee Brewers (69.5) – Under
Milwaukee probably has the inside track to the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft as the Brewers can be expected to finish with a pretty dismal record this season.
To lose this bet, the Brewers would have to be a 70-win team. Yet, their ace is Junior Guerra (although he’s not terrible) and their first baseman, Eric Thames, has not played a MLB game since 2012.
Minnesota Twins (75.5) – Under
I get that the Twins are a young team with some potential coming up through the pipeline, but in order to win this bet, they would need to make at least a 17-game improvement on last year’s 59-103 mark.
It’s fine to expect breakout seasons from youngsters like Byron Buxton, Max Kepler and Miguel Sano, but pitching is a dark spot and there are still plenty of questions surrounding the offense regardless of how these three youngsters perform.
Pittsburgh Pirates (82.5) – Over
There will be some growing pains, but youth could help carry this Pirates team into the playoff race.
Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow could made significant impacts on the pitching staff, especially if ace Gerrit Cole regains his old form.
At the plate, Josh Bell will add some pop and Gregory Polanco has a full year under his belt.
Don’t expect this team to hover as closely to the .500 mark as the oddsmakers think it will.
San Diego Padres (67.5) – Under
The worst team in baseball normally gets around 63 wins – 65 at best. In order to lose this bet, the Padres (who will likely be this year’s last place finisher) would have to win 68 games.
If you believe San Diego, who plays in an incredibly tough division and boasts pretty much nothing except an above average first baseman in Wil Myers, will finish with baseball’s worst record, take the under here.
Seattle Mariners (85.5) – Over
All Seattle needs to do in order to win this bet is to finish at or above their 86-win record from last season.
It seems likely, as this is a team poised to improve and play October baseball for the first time in 16 years thanks to a plethora of new additions.
Of those additions, Jarrod Dyson and Jean Segura will be able to scratch out some runs due to their speed and starting pitcher Drew Smyly adds more depth to the Seattle rotation. Things are looking up in the Pacific Northwest.
Texas Rangers (84.5) – Under
Not saying Texas finishes under .500, but winning 85 games may be tough. The Rangers squeezed out some incredibly lucky wins last season, not paying for many of their mistakes and instead snatching victory from the jaws of defeat.
This year, expect a regression to the mean. Especially since Texas did nothing to improve the bullpen and the back end of the rotation is still thin. Also, some of the big bats in the lineup are getting a bit stale (i.e. Shin-Soo Choo, Carlos Gomez, Mike Napoli). Is Adrian Beltre next?